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Making Sense of a United Ireland: Should it happen? How might it happen?

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Why are more Catholics disposed to the Union than Protestants to a United Ireland and what can be done to reverse that? Should be required reading for everyone - including unionists - who are interested in and concerned about the fate of this island' Dublin Review of Books Colm Tóibín wrongly implies that people who believe in a united Ireland are sinister troublemakers full of “mystical blather”. His attitude also reeks of nimbyism when he virtuously distances himself from Northern Ireland issues: “Their hatreds were not mine.” The final straw is his suggestion that we should admire the Queen for her diplomacy during her Irish state visit. It’s 2021 – “whatever you say, say nothing” has been replaced with “we’ve learned that quiet isn’t always peace”.

Sinn Féin won the most seats in this year’s local elections but polls show strong support for the boycott among DUP voters. One possibility is that devolution and Stormont could continue, perhaps for a transition period of 15 years, but with ultimate sovereignty transferring from London to Dublin.

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There have, however, been several unionist surrenders – as well as British betrayals. Ulster unionists parted with their Southern counterparts, who wanted all of Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom, or in the British empire or in the British Commonwealth. Southern unionists would have settled for “dominion status” for the entire island in 1917–18 so that they would have been part of a larger minority rather than the small one they became. They feared an Irish Republic, but they did not want partition. Ulster unionists preferred to leave Southern unionists behind rather than bolster them in a sovereign united Ireland. As retreating generals do, they cut their losses. Six into 26 won’t go!” I saw that painted on a Belfast gable wall when I was a boy. Being a competitive little lad, I thought the graffiti author didn’t understand fractions. After all, six goes into 26 “four and a third times.” Of course, the statement was not about division, where it may have been correct according to certain schoolteachers, but about partition. The likelihood of Irish unity will come as a surprise to many Canadians. It was virtually unthinkable in Ireland itself not so long ago. Two things explain the change. First, Protestants and unionists in Northern Ireland have lost their status as demographic or political majorities. Catholics and nationalists are not yet majorities, but the pivotal voters in a future referendum will be drawn from a middle group outside the traditional unionist and nationalist blocs. Second, that pivotal middle group is shifting toward support for Irish unity because of Brexit, the dramatic and increasing prosperity of the Republic of Ireland and the latter’s embrace of secularism and liberalism over Catholic conservatism.

Unionists will need someone to fight on their behalf if Irish reunification happens, said the former Royal Irish Regiment captain. “That has to be me.” The simplest model would be to simply switch the sovereignty over Northern Ireland from London to Dublin, retaining the North as a separate body with autonomy over local government, and with a Bill of Rights and other guarantees for British and Irish identity and culture. This might be the least disruptive model; for British unionists, it may seem less like they are been swallowed up by the Republic. For people living in the South, it will seem that unity does not mean losing the stability of the existing state. Moderate Unionists have turned to the centrist Alliance, which is Northern Ireland’s third largest party and is neither Unionist nor nationalist. It also has no position on reunification.

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Prof Brendan O’Leary, in his book Making Sense of a United Ireland, has suggested a united Ireland could rejoin the Commonwealth, although that is deeply unpopular with Irish voters. Spectre of violence after reunification

Ulster unionists had made a solemn covenant on “Ulster Day” in September 1912. In it they pledged loyalty to their brothers and sisters throughout Ulster. The covenant was signed by more than 235,000 men, with a matching declaration signed by nearly the same number of women. The three counties of Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan, however, had large Catholic and nationalist majorities. A nine-county Ulster would have meant, according to the census of 1911, a Protestant-to-Catholic ratio of 57 to 43 rather than the 66-to-34 ratio of what became Northern Ireland.Only the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which advocates for staying part of the United Kingdom, has made Northern Ireland’s political status an issue on the campaign trail, warning voters that casting a ballot for Sinn Féin will lead to casting another one in a referendum on Irish unity.

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