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Fischhoff B, Slovic P, & Lichtenstein S (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 552–564. doi: 10.1037/0096-1523.3.4.552 [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Keren G (1988). On the ability of monitoring non-veridical perceptions and uncertain knowledge: Some calibration studies. Acta Psychologica, 67, 95–119. doi: 10.1016/0001-6918(88)90007-8 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] As for the response confidence scores, the opinion judgments are reported here as proportions rather than percentages. There was a positive relationship between standard question confidence and standard question opinion judgments for incorrect reasoners, r(225) = .480, p< .001, such that incorrect reasoners who were less confident in their response were also less likely to think other reasoners could answer the standard question correctly. This strong relationship lends support to the notion that opinion judgments and response confidence scores are reflecting similar cognitive processes. De Neys W, Cromheeke S, & Osman M (2011). Biased but in doubt: Conflict and decision confidence. PloS one, 6( 1), e15954. [ PMC free article] [ PubMed] [ Google Scholar] Johnson ED, Tubau E, & De Neys W (2016). The Doubting System 1: Evidence for automatic substitution sensitivity. Acta Psychologica, 164, 56–64. doi: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2015.12.008 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar]

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Keren G (1997). On the calibration of probability judgments: Some critical comments and alternative perspectives. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 10, 269–278. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199709)10:3<269::AID-BDM281>3.0.CO;2-L [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar] Klayman J, Soll JB, González-Vallejo C, & Barlas S (1999). Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 79, 216–247. doi: 10.1006/obhd.1999.2847 [ PubMed] [ CrossRef] [ Google Scholar]

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